Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-05-21

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country

Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-05-11) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection

Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-05-11 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-11 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-11 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions

Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-11 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-11 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-11)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-11) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.

Country	New confirmed cases by infection date	Expected change in daily cases	Effective reproduction no.	Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan	412 (372 – 452)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	17 (11 – 36)
Algeria	193 (168 – 218)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	76 (19 – -36)
Argentina	347 (307 – 382)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	17 (11 – 38)
Armenia	232 (203 – 261)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	13 (8.5 – 28)
Australia	24 (8 – 36)	Unsure	1.2 (0.8 – 1.7)	15 (4.3 – -9.5)
Austria	58 (41 – 73)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	21 (7.9 – -31)
Azerbaijan	131 (109 – 153)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.3)	19 (9.5 – -5000)
Bahrain	287 (254 – 319)	Likely increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	110 (24 – -39)
Bangladesh	1395 (1180 – 1565)	Increasing	1.2 (1.2 – 1.3)	12 (9.8 – 16)
Belarus	1084 (944 – 1213)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	31 (18 – 110)
Belgium	334 (282 – 382)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-24 (-1500 – -12)
Benin	27 (10 – 41)	Unsure	1.1 (0.7 – 1.5)	25 (5.8 – -11)
Bolivia	225 (196 – 252)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	29 (14 – -270)
Bosnia and Herzegovina	30 (14 – 43)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.4)	130 (7.2 – -8)
Brazil	15346 (13193 – 17180)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.3)	12 (10 – 15)
Bulgaria	44 (26 – 59)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.3)	140 (9.2 – -11)
Cameroon	120 (100 – 141)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	28 (11 – -54)
Canada	1292 (1116 – 1428)	Unsure	1 (1 – 1.1)	88 (28 – -79)
Central African Republic	38 (22 – 50)	Increasing	1.4 (1 – 1.7)	8.6 (4.4 – 440)
Chad	35 (19 – 48)	Unsure	1.2 (0.8 – 1.5)	21 (5.9 – -13)
Chile	2903 (2488 – 3315)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.4)	10 (8.6 – 12)
China	9 (3 – 14)	Unsure	1.2 (0.7 – 1.7)	24 (4 – -6.1)
Colombia	761 (660 – 860)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	17 (12 – 30)
Cote dIvoire	48 (30 – 63)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.2)	-48 (14 – -9.1)
Croatia	14 (1 – 26)	Unsure	1.1 (0.3 – 1.8)	-30 (3.6 – -3)
Cuba	22 (8 – 37)	Unsure	1.1 (0.6 – 1.6)	19 (4.4 – -7.7)
Czechia	68 (45 – 85)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.9 – 1.4)	16 (7.1 – -55)
Democratic Republic of the Congo	91 (68 – 108)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	15 (7.5 – -3800)
Denmark	76 (57 – 95)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1.1)	-24 (32 – -8.7)
Djibouti	54 (36 – 68)	Increasing	1.5 (1.2 – 1.8)	6.6 (4.1 – 17)
Dominican Republic	406 (335 – 484)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	26 (12 – -220)
Ecuador	673 (574 – 767)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	9.7 (7.5 – 13)
Egypt	584 (478 – 682)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	15 (9.9 – 35)
El Salvador	69 (51 – 87)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	76 (11 – -15)
Equatorial Guinea	74 (52 – 90)	Increasing	1.6 (1.3 – 1.9)	4.8 (3.4 – 8.3)
Estonia	14 (4 – 26)	Likely increasing	1.5 (0.7 – 2.2)	6.6 (2.5 – -11)
Finland	62 (37 – 81)	Unsure	0.9 (0.7 – 1.2)	-29 (17 – -7.7)
France	519 (444 – 580)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-18 (1600 – -8.8)
Gabon	90 (66 – 109)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	42 (11 – -25)
Germany	743 (640 – 830)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1)	-57 (83 – -21)
Ghana	147 (120 – 171)	Decreasing	0.8 (0.6 – 0.9)	-8.4 (-14 – -5.9)
Greece	27 (8 – 44)	Unsure	1.3 (0.7 – 1.8)	12 (3.7 – -10)
Guatemala	133 (108 – 152)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	15 (8.2 – 79)
Guinea	90 (64 – 108)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	30 (10 – -28)
Guinea Bissau	38 (22 – 52)	Unsure	0.9 (0.7 – 1.2)	-25 (17 – -7)
Haiti	66 (44 – 84)	Increasing	1.5 (1.2 – 1.8)	6.5 (4.1 – 15)
Honduras	130 (105 – 148)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	31 (11 – -43)
Hungary	42 (25 – 55)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.4)	36 (7.8 – -13)
Iceland	7727 (0 – 457)	Likely increasing	39.3 (0.1 – 10.3)	0.0018 (0.57 – -2.2)
India	5453 (4660 – 6195)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	14 (11 – 18)
Indonesia	587 (514 – 669)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	17 (12 – 32)
Iran	2255 (1954 – 2542)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	16 (12 – 22)
Iraq	108 (76 – 131)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	21 (8.9 – -67)
Ireland	141 (116 – 162)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-25 (220 – -12)
Israel	21 (11 – 30)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.5 – 1.1)	-15 (16 – -5.1)
Italy	888 (792 – 985)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-39 (-7000 – -20)
Japan	59 (43 – 73)	Decreasing	0.8 (0.6 – 0.9)	-16 (170 – -7.7)
Kazakhstan	251 (218 – 281)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	13 (8.6 – 29)
Kosovo	16 (5 – 24)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.8 – 1.8)	11 (3.9 – -12)
Kuwait	1083 (939 – 1231)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	13 (10 – 17)
Kyrgyzstan	41 (21 – 57)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.9 – 1.5)	15 (5.5 – -19)
Latvia	24 (6 – 41)	Likely increasing	1.5 (0.8 – 2.3)	5.9 (2.6 – -20)
Lebanon	19 (8 – 30)	Unsure	1.2 (0.7 – 1.6)	34 (5 – -6.9)
Lithuania	16 (5 – 26)	Unsure	1.2 (0.7 – 1.7)	16 (4 – -8.2)
Luxembourg	16 (5 – 27)	Unsure	1.3 (0.7 – 2)	9.8 (3.1 – -9.2)
Malaysia	40 (23 – 54)	Unsure	0.9 (0.7 – 1.2)	-27 (15 – -6.9)
Maldives	37 (21 – 50)	Unsure	0.9 (0.7 – 1.2)	-20 (19 – -6.6)
Mexico	2646 (2288 – 2996)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	14 (11 – 20)
Moldova	166 (140 – 188)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	26 (12 – -110)
Mongolia	31 (12 – 50)	Increasing	2.1 (1.3 – 2.9)	3.1 (2 – 7.7)
Morocco	96 (70 – 118)	Decreasing	0.8 (0.7 – 1)	-13 (-61 – -7)
Nepal	39 (20 – 53)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.9 – 1.7)	9.6 (4.6 – -130)
Netherlands	193 (161 – 220)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-22 (-500 – -11)
New Zealand	20 (0 – 29)	Likely increasing	2.3 (0.6 – 4)	3 (1.2 – -7.3)
Niger	18 (4 – 31)	Unsure	1.2 (0.6 – 1.8)	20 (4 – -6.5)
Nigeria	244 (212 – 270)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-770 (27 – -25)
North Macedonia	31 (16 – 43)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.8 – 1.6)	18 (5.4 – -13)
Norway	27 (10 – 40)	Unsure	1 (0.6 – 1.4)	-92 (7 – -6)
Oman	274 (244 – 307)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.3)	16 (9.8 – 48)
Pakistan	1963 (1705 – 2233)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	26 (16 – 62)
Palestine	13 (1 – 24)	Likely increasing	2 (0.7 – 3.2)	2.9 (1.5 – 1100)
Panama	158 (130 – 179)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.1)	-62 (35 – -16)
Paraguay	20 (9 – 31)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.5 – 1.2)	-7.2 (31 – -3.2)
Peru	4362 (3812 – 4847)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	16 (13 – 23)
Philippines	258 (216 – 299)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	36 (15 – -100)
Poland	397 (333 – 452)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	35 (17 – -490)
Portugal	247 (206 – 289)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.2)	-110 (23 – -16)
Puerto Rico	79 (60 – 96)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.4)	18 (7.8 – -58)
Qatar	1712 (1486 – 1922)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	16 (12 – 22)
Romania	223 (184 – 254)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-39 (60 – -15)
Russia	11004 (9834 – 12163)	Increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	92 (39 – -220)
Saudi Arabia	2817 (2419 – 3172)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	14 (11 – 18)
Senegal	92 (70 – 113)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.1)	-97 (19 – -14)
Serbia	82 (61 – 99)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.2)	73 (12 – -18)
Singapore	647 (572 – 717)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1)	-78 (85 – -27)
Slovakia	21 (3 – 38)	Likely increasing	1.7 (0.7 – 2.7)	5.3 (2.2 – -11)
Somalia	54 (34 – 69)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.3)	69 (9.6 – -14)
South Africa	968 (827 – 1087)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.3)	12 (9.4 – 16)
South Korea	26 (15 – 36)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.4)	46 (7.1 – -10)
Spain	596 (525 – 662)	Decreasing	0.8 (0.7 – 0.9)	-9.9 (-15 – -7.5)
Sri Lanka	26 (13 – 38)	Unsure	1.2 (0.8 – 1.6)	13 (4.6 – -16)
Sudan	173 (141 – 200)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.3)	19 (10 – 190)
Sweden	541 (477 – 601)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-2400 (38 – -38)
Switzerland	38 (25 – 50)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.6 – 1.1)	-22 (22 – -7.3)
Thailand	15 (0 – 28)	Unsure	1.6 (0.4 – 2.7)	6.2 (1.9 – -4.9)
Tunisia	16 (0 – 28)	Likely increasing	2.2 (0.7 – 3.7)	2.7 (1.3 – -26)
Turkey	1590 (1439 – 1740)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	870 (47 – -55)
Ukraine	452 (397 – 504)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	500 (32 – -36)
United Arab Emirates	896 (773 – 1026)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	17 (12 – 30)
United Kingdom	3577 (3212 – 3889)	Likely decreasing	1 (0.9 – 1)	-54 (320 – -25)
United Republic of Tanzania	12 (2 – 18)	Likely decreasing	0.7 (0.4 – 1.1)	-7.4 (28 – -3.2)
United States of America	25380 (22652 – 27786)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	49 (27 – 240)
Uruguay	27 (21 – 33)	Increasing	1.8 (1.4 – 2.4)	5.7 (3.7 – 11)
Uzbekistan	53 (33 – 65)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.3)	100 (11 – -13)
Venezuela	61 (40 – 76)	Increasing	1.7 (1.3 – 2.1)	4.4 (3.1 – 7.8)
Zambia	57 (34 – 81)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.4)	63 (8.9 – -12)