Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-05-21

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-05-11) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-05-11 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-11 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-11 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-11 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-11 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-11)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-11) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan 412 (372 – 452) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 17 (11 – 36)
Algeria 193 (168 – 218) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 76 (19 – -36)
Argentina 347 (307 – 382) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 17 (11 – 38)
Armenia 232 (203 – 261) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 13 (8.5 – 28)
Australia 24 (8 – 36) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.7) 15 (4.3 – -9.5)
Austria 58 (41 – 73) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 21 (7.9 – -31)
Azerbaijan 131 (109 – 153) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 19 (9.5 – -5000)
Bahrain 287 (254 – 319) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 110 (24 – -39)
Bangladesh 1395 (1180 – 1565) Increasing 1.2 (1.2 – 1.3) 12 (9.8 – 16)
Belarus 1084 (944 – 1213) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 31 (18 – 110)
Belgium 334 (282 – 382) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -24 (-1500 – -12)
Benin 27 (10 – 41) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 25 (5.8 – -11)
Bolivia 225 (196 – 252) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 29 (14 – -270)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 30 (14 – 43) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.4) 130 (7.2 – -8)
Brazil 15346 (13193 – 17180) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.3) 12 (10 – 15)
Bulgaria 44 (26 – 59) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.3) 140 (9.2 – -11)
Cameroon 120 (100 – 141) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 28 (11 – -54)
Canada 1292 (1116 – 1428) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 88 (28 – -79)
Central African Republic 38 (22 – 50) Increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.7) 8.6 (4.4 – 440)
Chad 35 (19 – 48) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.5) 21 (5.9 – -13)
Chile 2903 (2488 – 3315) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 10 (8.6 – 12)
China 9 (3 – 14) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.7) 24 (4 – -6.1)
Colombia 761 (660 – 860) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 17 (12 – 30)
Cote dIvoire 48 (30 – 63) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.2) -48 (14 – -9.1)
Croatia 14 (1 – 26) Unsure 1.1 (0.3 – 1.8) -30 (3.6 – -3)
Cuba 22 (8 – 37) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.6) 19 (4.4 – -7.7)
Czechia 68 (45 – 85) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 16 (7.1 – -55)
Democratic Republic of the Congo 91 (68 – 108) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 15 (7.5 – -3800)
Denmark 76 (57 – 95) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -24 (32 – -8.7)
Djibouti 54 (36 – 68) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.8) 6.6 (4.1 – 17)
Dominican Republic 406 (335 – 484) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 26 (12 – -220)
Ecuador 673 (574 – 767) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 9.7 (7.5 – 13)
Egypt 584 (478 – 682) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (9.9 – 35)
El Salvador 69 (51 – 87) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 76 (11 – -15)
Equatorial Guinea 74 (52 – 90) Increasing 1.6 (1.3 – 1.9) 4.8 (3.4 – 8.3)
Estonia 14 (4 – 26) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.7 – 2.2) 6.6 (2.5 – -11)
Finland 62 (37 – 81) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -29 (17 – -7.7)
France 519 (444 – 580) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -18 (1600 – -8.8)
Gabon 90 (66 – 109) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 42 (11 – -25)
Germany 743 (640 – 830) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -57 (83 – -21)
Ghana 147 (120 – 171) Decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 0.9) -8.4 (-14 – -5.9)
Greece 27 (8 – 44) Unsure 1.3 (0.7 – 1.8) 12 (3.7 – -10)
Guatemala 133 (108 – 152) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 15 (8.2 – 79)
Guinea 90 (64 – 108) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 30 (10 – -28)
Guinea Bissau 38 (22 – 52) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -25 (17 – -7)
Haiti 66 (44 – 84) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.8) 6.5 (4.1 – 15)
Honduras 130 (105 – 148) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 31 (11 – -43)
Hungary 42 (25 – 55) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 36 (7.8 – -13)
Iceland 7727 (0 – 457) Likely increasing 39.3 (0.1 – 10.3) 0.0018 (0.57 – -2.2)
India 5453 (4660 – 6195) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (11 – 18)
Indonesia 587 (514 – 669) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 17 (12 – 32)
Iran 2255 (1954 – 2542) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (12 – 22)
Iraq 108 (76 – 131) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 21 (8.9 – -67)
Ireland 141 (116 – 162) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -25 (220 – -12)
Israel 21 (11 – 30) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1.1) -15 (16 – -5.1)
Italy 888 (792 – 985) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -39 (-7000 – -20)
Japan 59 (43 – 73) Decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 0.9) -16 (170 – -7.7)
Kazakhstan 251 (218 – 281) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 13 (8.6 – 29)
Kosovo 16 (5 – 24) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.8) 11 (3.9 – -12)
Kuwait 1083 (939 – 1231) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 13 (10 – 17)
Kyrgyzstan 41 (21 – 57) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 15 (5.5 – -19)
Latvia 24 (6 – 41) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.8 – 2.3) 5.9 (2.6 – -20)
Lebanon 19 (8 – 30) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.6) 34 (5 – -6.9)
Lithuania 16 (5 – 26) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.7) 16 (4 – -8.2)
Luxembourg 16 (5 – 27) Unsure 1.3 (0.7 – 2) 9.8 (3.1 – -9.2)
Malaysia 40 (23 – 54) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -27 (15 – -6.9)
Maldives 37 (21 – 50) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -20 (19 – -6.6)
Mexico 2646 (2288 – 2996) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (11 – 20)
Moldova 166 (140 – 188) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 26 (12 – -110)
Mongolia 31 (12 – 50) Increasing 2.1 (1.3 – 2.9) 3.1 (2 – 7.7)
Morocco 96 (70 – 118) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -13 (-61 – -7)
Nepal 39 (20 – 53) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.7) 9.6 (4.6 – -130)
Netherlands 193 (161 – 220) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -22 (-500 – -11)
New Zealand 20 (0 – 29) Likely increasing 2.3 (0.6 – 4) 3 (1.2 – -7.3)
Niger 18 (4 – 31) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.8) 20 (4 – -6.5)
Nigeria 244 (212 – 270) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -770 (27 – -25)
North Macedonia 31 (16 – 43) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.8 – 1.6) 18 (5.4 – -13)
Norway 27 (10 – 40) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.4) -92 (7 – -6)
Oman 274 (244 – 307) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 16 (9.8 – 48)
Pakistan 1963 (1705 – 2233) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 26 (16 – 62)
Palestine 13 (1 – 24) Likely increasing 2 (0.7 – 3.2) 2.9 (1.5 – 1100)
Panama 158 (130 – 179) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -62 (35 – -16)
Paraguay 20 (9 – 31) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1.2) -7.2 (31 – -3.2)
Peru 4362 (3812 – 4847) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (13 – 23)
Philippines 258 (216 – 299) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 36 (15 – -100)
Poland 397 (333 – 452) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 35 (17 – -490)
Portugal 247 (206 – 289) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) -110 (23 – -16)
Puerto Rico 79 (60 – 96) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 18 (7.8 – -58)
Qatar 1712 (1486 – 1922) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (12 – 22)
Romania 223 (184 – 254) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -39 (60 – -15)
Russia 11004 (9834 – 12163) Increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 92 (39 – -220)
Saudi Arabia 2817 (2419 – 3172) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (11 – 18)
Senegal 92 (70 – 113) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -97 (19 – -14)
Serbia 82 (61 – 99) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) 73 (12 – -18)
Singapore 647 (572 – 717) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -78 (85 – -27)
Slovakia 21 (3 – 38) Likely increasing 1.7 (0.7 – 2.7) 5.3 (2.2 – -11)
Somalia 54 (34 – 69) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.3) 69 (9.6 – -14)
South Africa 968 (827 – 1087) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.3) 12 (9.4 – 16)
South Korea 26 (15 – 36) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 46 (7.1 – -10)
Spain 596 (525 – 662) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) -9.9 (-15 – -7.5)
Sri Lanka 26 (13 – 38) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.6) 13 (4.6 – -16)
Sudan 173 (141 – 200) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 19 (10 – 190)
Sweden 541 (477 – 601) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -2400 (38 – -38)
Switzerland 38 (25 – 50) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.6 – 1.1) -22 (22 – -7.3)
Thailand 15 (0 – 28) Unsure 1.6 (0.4 – 2.7) 6.2 (1.9 – -4.9)
Tunisia 16 (0 – 28) Likely increasing 2.2 (0.7 – 3.7) 2.7 (1.3 – -26)
Turkey 1590 (1439 – 1740) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 870 (47 – -55)
Ukraine 452 (397 – 504) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 500 (32 – -36)
United Arab Emirates 896 (773 – 1026) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 17 (12 – 30)
United Kingdom 3577 (3212 – 3889) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -54 (320 – -25)
United Republic of Tanzania 12 (2 – 18) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.4 – 1.1) -7.4 (28 – -3.2)
United States of America 25380 (22652 – 27786) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 49 (27 – 240)
Uruguay 27 (21 – 33) Increasing 1.8 (1.4 – 2.4) 5.7 (3.7 – 11)
Uzbekistan 53 (33 – 65) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 100 (11 – -13)
Venezuela 61 (40 – 76) Increasing 1.7 (1.3 – 2.1) 4.4 (3.1 – 7.8)
Zambia 57 (34 – 81) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 63 (8.9 – -12)